Larry Fink, chief executive of asset manager BlackRock, warned that oil at around $150 a barrel would likely push the global economy into a deep downturn.
He told the BBC that if tensions with Iran persist and energy prices remain elevated, the fallout would be severe for growth and living standards.
Fink, who runs a firm with about $14 trillion under management, outlined two broad paths for the oil market.
If the Middle East conflict is resolved and Iran is reintegrated into international systems, prices could slide back below pre-crisis levels.
If it continues, he said the world could face several years with oil above $100 — potentially near $150 — bringing what he described as a steep recession.
Rising energy costs, he noted, act like a regressive tax that hits poorer households hardest.
That dynamic, he argued, would accelerate global investment in solar and wind if high prices persisted for multiple years.
The comments come as some industry groups in the UK urge more domestic oil and gas production to reduce import dependence amid global instability.
Fink advised pragmatism: governments should use available resources while simultaneously pushing much harder into alternative power sources.
On financial stability, Fink dismissed comparisons with the 2007-08 crisis, saying today's banks and institutions are in a much stronger position.
He acknowledged pockets of stress — including some firms restricting withdrawals from private credit vehicles — but described those issues as limited relative to the broader market.
On artificial intelligence, Fink rejected the idea of a broad bubble, while accepting that individual AI ventures could fail.
He framed AI as a strategic race, warning that insufficient investment risks ceding leadership to China, which he said is moving rapidly into solar and nuclear capacity.
Energy costs are a key constraint for widespread AI deployment, he added.
Cheap, reliable power will be crucial for data centres and high-performance computing, a point underscored by BlackRock's recent participation in a consortium buying major data centre operator Aligned Data Centres in a deal valued at about $40 billion.
Fink also argued that AI will create many practical, skilled jobs — electricians, welders and plumbers among them — and called for a recalibration of education and training.
He said too many people have been pushed toward university pathways and urged greater emphasis on technical and vocational routes to meet changing labour-market needs.
