UK drivers have been warned to brace for rising fuel prices after a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions sent shockwaves through global oil markets on Friday morning. The oil markets were rocked after Israel launched a large scale airstrike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The offensive, involving dozens of fighter jets, was confirmed by the Israeli military as part of a strategic operation aimed at halting Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions and led to a surge in oil prices. The airstrikes killed senior military leaders including Hossein Salami, head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and several nuclear scientists. Civilians, including children, were also reportedly among the casualties.

In response, Iran launched about 100 drones toward Israel, which declared a state of emergency and intercepted some of the incoming attacks. While the US has denied direct involvement in the strikes, President Donald Trump indicated he was informed of Israel's plans in advance. Following the attacks, oil prices first jumped by over 10%, before settling slightly lower but still up 5.7% at $73.29 (£53.92) per barrel, marking its largest daily gain since April 2023, The Guardian reported.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime route through which around a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows.

Disruption in this critical corridor could have severe consequences for global energy markets.

Experts have warned this "worst-case scenario" could cause major disruptions to global oil supply.

JPMorgan has said that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed, oil prices could spike to around $120 per barrel (£88.3), which could lead to UK fuel prices going above £2 per litre, GB News reported.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial said: "What we see now is very initial risk-on reaction. But over the next day or two, the market will need to factor in where this could escalate to."

Chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, Matt Gertken, said: "These attacks on Iran are most likely the first steps toward all-out conflict in the Middle East – but there is still a 25% chance of a diplomatic resolution and de-escalation.

"We’ve already seen a minor oil price spike, yet Israel has not finished its campaign and Iran has not fully retaliated. In the worst-case scenario, which now has 45% odds, we could see Iran retaliate, the US enter the fray, and oil prices double as Iran strikes regional oil supply.

"Any oil supply shock would have global implications, reminding the world of the US’s inherent advantages, weighing on European and Chinese economies, and playing into Russia’s hands in Ukraine."

The UK has recently benefited from a period of falling fuel prices, but that relief may soon be reversed if tensions continue to escalate.