Conflict with Russia is inevitable unless NATO demonstrates strength and unity in the face of Moscow’s escalating provocations, defence experts have warned. It follows a separate warning by Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur that Moscow's recent spate of hybrid attacks is aimed at forcing NATO members to prioritise their own defence over support for Ukraine.

Keir Giles of Chatham House said: “I fear a kinetic war with Russia is looking inevitable, because the measures to prevent such a war are still not being taken. Russia today has little to deter it from taking on the West should the US be neutralised as a factor.” Mr Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe?, added: “Despite all the rhetoric and promises, we see little concretely achieved, as was shown when Poland experienced just a tiny fraction of the drone waves suffered by Ukraine every night. It would have no way of dealing with that scale of Russian drone attack.”

Former Estonian deputy defence minister Lauri Almann said all-out conflict could only be avoided “if we can show resolve and strength".

He added: “Russia respects strength, and that’s the only message that more or less has worked.”

Prof Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars, also warned that Moscow’s reckless decision-making makes conflict more likely.

He said: “Russia does not actually want war, but the more aggressive and reckless they are, the greater the risks. Putin didn’t intend to be involved in this war in Ukraine. All kinds of calculations can be made that seem perfectly sensible but just happen to be deeply stupid.”

He stressed the need for credible deterrence and added: “Putin is pretty risk-averse. He likes to play daring and threatening, but actually he operates cautiously. When they do get pushback, the Russians have a tendency to pull back. The thing is to actually have the capacity to be able to offer pushback.”

The warning comes as Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur said Moscow’s recent spate of hybrid attacks – from drone incursions and airspace violations to cyber strikes and election interference – are designed to force NATO members to focus on their own defences at the expense of support for Ukraine.

“Russia is deliberately pushing all of us, the NATO allies, to deal with our own matters,” he told the Sunday Express.

“There have been air incidents and airspace violations, we have had drone incidents, cyberattacks and even the Moldovan elections. They conduct different hybrid operations and disinformation campaigns so that we take focus off Ukraine. This is one of the strategic goals of Russia – they want to operate freely in Ukraine.”

Estonia, which shares a 210-mile border with Russia, has experienced the pressure directly.

Last week three MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace.

“This is unprecedented. We have not seen a manned aircraft in NATO airspace for such a long time,” said the minister.

“Russia is claiming that they were not in our airspace, but we have the radar pictures and were monitoring them long before they entered. The Italian aircraft gave very clear signals and we contacted them many times via radio frequencies. They ignored us.”

Col Gaetano Farina, commander of the Italian Baltic Eagle III mission in Estonia, added: “Not only could the pilots see each other’s faces, but the Russians actually waved.”

The pattern is clear, Mr Pevkur said.

“Russia is testing how far they can go to destabilise society. Is it okay to kill someone? Is it okay to disrupt the air traffic? Is it okay to disrupt the undersea cables?

“We have been living next to Russia for centuries. We know how they operate. We know what they do.”

A call by US president Donald Trump for any Russian plane violating NATO airspace to be shot down was echoed by Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna, who said: “The message must be unequivocal: future violations will meet a response – including, if necessary, the interception and downing of intruding aircraft.”

Mr Pevkur said Estonia was ready.

“We value the society we have built and will not allow Russia to take it away from us,” he said.

“When there is an intention to start a war from Russia, then there will be a response, a very heavy response, a very quick response.”

For that to be effective, however, NATO must learn from Ukraine, he said, adding: “We must be more precise, increase our speed, and hit them from a much greater distance than they can hit us.”

Britain remained central to that response and around 900 British troops are stationed in Estonia as part of Operation Cabrit, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced forward land forces in the Baltic, Poland and Finland. Some are just 35 miles from the Russian border.

“The UK understands the value of being here, not only in terms of efforts, but also in terms of aspirations,” said the minister. “The cooperation is very good, and Estonia values the UK presence highly.”

But taking the bait of Russian goading would be counterproductive, he warned.

“This is exactly the moment we have to stay calm. We cannot overreact and start a war ourselves. This is what Russia wants.”

Estonia will soon join NATO allies in delivering several hundred tactical reconnaissance drones for Ukraine’s armed forces in a £20million project.

Britain has pledged £22billion in military and non-military support for Ukraine, and was the first nation to offer the war-torn country long-range missiles in the form of Storm Shadows, with a range of 155 miles, and main battle tanks.

Last week, Estonian defence giant Defsecintel Solutions and Latvian Origin Robotics signed a Memorandum of Understanding confirming a new partnership that aims to deliver Europe’s first operational “Drone Wall” – a picket fence comprised of mobile counter-UAS missile carriers intended to defend the Baltics and Poland against Russian drone attacks.

“Politicians have called for a Drone Wall. We are ready to build it,” said Jaanus Tamm, chief executive of Defsecintel Solutions. “We just need the green light.”