Don’t get me wrong, I’ve nothing against Andy Burnham. Whatever your views, most people on either side of the political divide think he has been a powerful and effective Mayor of Greater Manchester.
Even some Tories concede that he has become “king of the North”. He has been prepared to put party politics to one side to fight for his patch, regardless of whether it pleases his colleagues in Westminster – something we should all applaud. As someone born and bred in the North myself, it’s refreshing to hear a different voice at the top of British politics.
But as Labour despairs about Nigel Farage and Reform’s lead in the opinion polls, many on the Left seem to think he is a sort of messiah who will ride over the hill, take over, and somehow steer a flailing Government to glory.
Indeed, Mr Burnham himself says MPs have been calling him over the summer, urging him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t fathom why.
Firstly, the idea that Mr Burnham could or would topple the Prime Minister in a coup seems wildly far-fetched.
Labour rules clearly state that the party leader must be an MP. Mr Burnham would need there to be a by-election – and given so much of his political identity is tied to the mayoralty, he could only credibly stand in Greater Manchester itself.
That immediately limits his options to 25 Labour-held seats, and none of those MPs look like stepping down soon.
Even if one did, Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) would have to approve his candidacy. That’s by no means a certainty, given that many NEC members who are Starmer loyalists would surely try to block Mr Burnham to protect Sir Keir.
Even then, Mr Burnham has got to win that by-election. Polls are already showing that seats like Angela Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyne are under mortal threat from Reform UK – and you can bet your bottom dollar Mr Farage would throw the kitchen sink at any campaign just to embarrass Mr Burnham. Would he really want to risk everything?
Suppose all those improbable things happen, and Mr Burnham returns to Westminster. Labour rules state that support is needed from 20% of MPs to challenge the leader.
While Mr Burnham clearly has some support, there’s no evidence he has the backing of the required 83 MPs to get on the ballot, let alone beat Sir Keir in a vote – particularly if a third or fourth candidate then enters the fray, as the rules permit.
Remember, Mr Burnham has stood for the Labour leadership twice – once losing to Ed Miliband, then to Jeremy Corbyn. If he can’t beat two leaders who were roundly rejected by the British public, what chance does he have of winning against one who romped to a landslide?
But let’s imagine he does somehow wrestle the keys to No 10 off the PM. What’s to say he would be any different from Sir Keir?
Sure, he might bring a different style, and perhaps he would win the confidence of his party (if not the wider country) on issues like the two-child benefit cap. But fundamentally, he would face exactly the same excruciatingly difficult choices as the current PM – and his decisions are unlikely to be any better.
Under him, Labour would still have to choose where to draw the line between tax rises and spending cuts. It would still have to try to grow the economy with paltry money available. It would still have to grapple with both illegal and legal migration. It would still struggle to slash NHS waiting lists. It would still face complaints of two-tier policing and justice. And it would still face a cockahoop Mr Farage claiming that Labour is crumbling.
Hoping that a new leader will fix Labour’s challenges is rather like thinking that repainting your door will stop dry rot. Mr Burnham may or may not be a more presentable PM, but Labour has to fix the foundations it so often talks about and understand why it is losing voters if it really wants to turn things around.
