Much of the anti-Reform media got pretty excited a few days ago when an opinion poll from More in Common seemed to show support for Nigel Farage's party slipping. While More in Common's previous poll had Reform UK nine points ahead of Labour (31 to 22, with the Tories on 18), their latest poll gave Reform a much smaller 3-point lead (28 to 25, with the Tories on 20). As if Sir Keir Starmer had done much in the last few weeks to endear himself to the British people.

Lo and behold, the next major poll by YouGov had Reform 8 points clear of Labour (29 to 21, with the Tories on 17). Admittedly that lead is one point down from YouGov's last poll, with Labour up from an earlier 20 points. Nonetheless, YouGov's bigger lead for Farage's party is much more in line with averaging polling. Ultimately, the British people are not going to suddenly swing against Reform without good reason. And no good reason has yet been given.

True, Reform could bring this about itself – infighting perhaps or policy overreach. But if the Establishment thought Farage's deportation pledge would swing things around they might have to put the champagne back on ice.

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey may have attacked the BBC in his conference speech for giving Reform so much airtime. But if a party with just five MPs can dominate the airwaves – and master social media to boot – that says more about the failings of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories than anything else.

As I have warned before however, there is a chance a Tory leadership change could hit Reform's lead. Leadership rules mean Kemi Badenoch can be ousted from November. While a new Tory leader may well fail to reverse the Conservatives' poll decline, could he or she really do any worse?

As for Labour, Sir Keir and co still control the power of the state, ostensibly for the next four years. True, the Tories hardly covered themselves in glory when they had the power of government behind them. But Labour, in theory, have the most powerful tools to turn this ship around.

That said, can we really believe Labour will get a handle on big issue like immigration or the economy? While Labour's flagship 'one-in-one-out' illegal migration deal with France is now underway, this is akin to a Band-Aid over a gaping wound.

How does keeping the numbers effectively constant while outsourcing Britain's migration policy to France solve the problem? Moreover, it's a bit of a con to tell the public illegal immigrants get no benefits when they get a home, cash, food and maternity grants.

As for the economy, Labour better stop hiking taxes and driving out wealth creators if they want to do better here. Meanwhile it hardly helps that scumbags can rob with impunity in lawless London.

Make no mistake, what we see in the UK were deliberate choices by sometimes useless and sometimes malevolent politicians. Here in Singapore, business booms, poverty is low, crime virtually zero, and the borders tight.

Ditto Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. If these countries can get their acts together, why can't Western countries like the UK? Heck, even the US has clamped down on illegal immigration, albeit after irreversible demographic change has already occurred.

Ultimately, unless Labour gets its house in order, or the Conservatives get a new leader and start to look like a credible party again, or Reform collapses into infighting, it doesn't look like much is going to shift the dial.

If Reform can hold its lead into next year – and certainly past the May local elections, and certainly if and when the Tories swap out Badenoch for maybe Robert Jenrick – then its lead may well be unassailable. At which point Labour might indeed call an early election as an exercise in damage limitation.

Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories need to grasp the fact this is the vibes era. Harnessing social media and winning the emotional arguments is what counts. Folks know how they feel, and Farage knows how those folks feel. It will take more than one outlier poll or a quarter of good economic news to dethrone Reform from its lead.