UK borrowing costs have just hit their highest level since the financial crisis, in the latest blow for our increasingly beleaguered Chancellor. As I write, 30-year gilt yields have climbed above 5.5%. That’s almost 20% higher than when Labour took power just over a year ago, when they were around 4.6%.
Incredibly, it's also the highest number since way back 1998. For a country with a massive £3trillion debt pile, that’s punishing.
And there’s little Rachel Reeves can do to stop it, because this time the trigger lies in Washington. I warned a US financial storm was heading our way a few days ago, and it's already landing.
Last night we learned that Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving up US inflation as feared, and the UK government bond market is reeling from the aftershock.
US producer prices rose 3.3% in July, far above the 2.5% forecast, with tariff-hit metals and food leading the surge.
American businesses are now starting to pass the costs on to domestic consumers, driving up prices. Where US inflation goes, ours tends to follow, and so do the interest rates we pay on our debts.
More than a quarter of UK government bonds, known as gilts, are inflation-linked, the highest proportion in the world.
So rising inflation feeds directly into higher interest bills on our massive debt pile.
The UK borrowed £20.7billion in June alone. Of that massive sum, an incredible £16.4 billion covered the interest on money we previously borrowed. Now we'll pay even more.
Reeves was already facing a £51billion hole in the public finances. Now Trump’s inflation shock will make filling it even harder.
Britain’s borrowing costs were already inflated because global investors don’t trust our public finances.
Germany pays just 3.2% on its 30-year bonds, a gap that drains tens of billions from our budget each year. Reeves needs to close that gap, but instead it’s getting wider.
The comparison with Liz Truss is unavoidable.
Her brief time in Downing Street sent 30-year gilt yields to 4.852% and helped topple her government. Today, they’re 13% higher. And that’s despite the Bank of England cutting rates five times since Reeves took office.
The extra cost is crippling. The Chancellor’s own mistakes have left her vulnerable, and now she is at the mercy of global markets, and Donald Trump.
Reeves already struggling to make her columns tally. If gilt yields climb much higher, her number is surely up.