Sir Keir Starmer suffered an embarrassing undermining of his authority at the worst conceivable moment on July 1. Coming off the back of bad poll numbers for Labour, low approval ratings for the PM and council losses in May, now was not the time for a backbench rebellion and government climbdown.
But that's exactly what the PM got for his flagship welfare reforms. His Chancellor - Rachel Reeves - also has her authority dented after Tuesday. To make matters worse, Sir Keir and Reeves must find an extra £5bn in savings before the next Budget. That either means inevitable spending cuts or tax rises. Ouch! So much for that stonking great majority Labour got exactly one year ago. The party's MPs rebelled in their droves, with 49 finally voting against their own government.
Not that Sir Keir didn't try. Just hours before the vote, the government said it would not finalise changes in eligibility for one benefit payment until a review. Now new rules will apply to future applicants, not current ones.
The Tories may crow at this, with Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride attacking "a government that's lost control" but frankly - after 14 years of failure - no one gives a crap what the Conservative Party has to say.
Let me elaborate. A quick butcher's at the opinion polls tells us that - although Reform's lead has narrowed - the Tory poll rating isn't moving (stuck consistently on around 17%).
If, for example, any pollster has Reform's lead shaved by a point or two it is always Labour which gains (and vice versa). This is now a two-horse race between Sir Keir and Nigel Farage.
This then makes last night's humiliation all the worse for Labour and all the better for Reform. Especially if tax rises or spending cuts kick in, it won't be the Tories who gain but Reform.
Even if some Labour support bleeds to the Greens and Lib Dems, the Conservatives gain nothing but Reform likely stays in first place.
As I keep saying, if Reform can keep its poll lead for another year then the scales start to tilt for the next election, slated for 2029.
At that point, support for Reform - including among previous non-voters - starts to bed in while some Tory MPs (reading the room) may begin to defect to Reform, beefing the latter's Parliamentary numbers.
However let me add a note of caution to Farage's party. Firstly, if the Tories poll numbers keep crashing then leader Kemi Badenoch could be sent packing.
A new Tory leader won't necessarily save the Conservatives but could it hurt? Right now, Badenoch's leadership is a huge asset to Reform.
Ditto Sir Keir. If the PM's authority is shredded much more, he too may be sent packing. The same goes for Chancellor Reeves.
Pole-position to replace the PM must surely be Angela Rayner or Wes Streeting, working class heroes with stories to tell. Either could connect better with Labour grassroots and the type of folks currently flirting with Reform.
If Labour and Tory woes persist therefore, new leaders for both parties could be in the offing. That won't necessarily be good news for Nigel Farage, currently able to capitalise on the unpopularity of the current leaders.
The story this week however is a PM with weakened authority, a government forced into a climbdown and tax rises likely on the way. Reform can only gain from this. But the next election is still four years away. This is no time for complacency from Farage and co.
