A majority of Britons now believe World War 3 is likely within the next five to 10 years and most lack confidence that the UK armed forces could defend the country, according to a new YouGov poll released today. The survey of British adults found that 53% think another global conflict is probable, including 16% who describe it as “very likely”.
That marks a 12-point rise since April 2025, with the “very likely” sahre up eight points. Only 32% see World War 3 as unlikely, and just 7% as “very unlikely”. Pessimism cuts across party lines, ranging from 47% among Liberal Democrat voters to 59% of Reform UK supporters. The findings come as multiple international crises intensify fears of escalation.
In Ukraine, Russian forces continue grinding offensives while Ukrainian troops have launched successful counterattacks, liberating territory in the south and striking Russian oil infrastructure.
The war, now entering its fourth year, shows no sign of ending, with Moscow reportedly preparing expanded demands on Kyiv and NATO.
Russia-NATO tensions are rising in parallel. Moscow is expanding military units and forming new brigades along the alliance’s eastern flank, including Iskander missile forces in its western district.
NATO is currently conducting "Cold Response" exercises in the Arctic and launching studies into potential conflict scenarios with Russia.
The Middle East has erupted into open war between the US, Israel and Iran. Israeli and American strikes have targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites, while Tehran has attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, attacking oil tankers and disrupting global shipping. The fighting has killed more than 2,000 people in recent weeks and sent oil prices soaring.
Against this backdrop, 54% of Britons say they have little or no confidence in the UK armed forces’ ability to defend the country in a major war. Only 36% express any confidence, with just 5% holding “a great deal”.
Reform UK voters stand out as especially sceptical, with only 22% confident in the military compared with 34-44% among supporters of other parties.
The poll underscores a nation gripped by doomsday anxiety. With no immediate resolution in sight for the conflicts driving global instability, the British public appears increasingly resigned to the possibility that the next world war is not a question of “if” — but “when”.
