Vladimir Putin may use tomorrow’s high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska to press for concessions on US missile deployments in Europe, a defence expert has claimed. Dr Sid Kaushal, senior research fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), warned that while nuclear arms themselves are unlikely to dominate the talks, Russia may focus on delaying or halting the deployment of US intermediate-range systems in Europe.

He said: “Creating bargaining chips for future talks might be one of the rationales for plans to place the Oreshnik ballistic missile in Belarus,” highlighting Moscow’s strategy of leveraging conventional missile systems as political pressure. The Oreshnik is a new Russian theatre-range ballistic missile designed to strike targets at medium distances in Europe, potentially bypassing NATO defences. The Alaska summit marks a rare direct encounter between the Russian and US presidents, and comes amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that Russia is moving troops for a new offensive, raising the stakes for the discussion and international scrutiny.

Dr Kaushal emphasised that nuclear rhetoric is unlikely to be a key feature of the meeting. He said: “Nuclear rhetoric is something that Russia would currently see as counterproductive.

"First, since the Russians are not losing conventionally, there is less incentive for nuclear posturing. Secondly, the reaction to Medvedev suggests that nuclear rhetoric is something that Trump is quite sensitive to.”

The RUSI report, The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Doctrine, supports this view. It argues that Russia’s nuclear strategy has evolved in response to enhanced Western missile defences and the rise of China as a third nuclear peer.

The report notes that these developments challenge Russia’s ability to rely on calibrated nuclear escalation in regional conflicts and could push Moscow to strengthen its arsenal and develop new theatre-range systems.

While it flags the risk of nuclear use in catastrophic scenarios, it assesses the likelihood of Russia actually employing nuclear weapons in Ukraine as low.

Dr Kaushal said: “Doctrinally, the Russians do not plan to use nuclear weapons in what they describe as a local war, which arguably describes Ukraine.

"While doctrine is not always rigidly followed, the most likely scenario in which Russia might have used nuclear weapons would have been a catastrophic defeat. That does not appear to be the case presently.”

Instead, Dr Kaushal sees Moscow’s objectives as pragmatic and long-term. He said: “Russia’s moves are less about immediate nuclear threats and more about positioning itself strategically for future talks.”

By pressing for concessions on US missile deployments, Russia aims to shape conditions for future arms negotiations and regional security arrangements.

China’s growing nuclear capabilities also factor into Moscow’s calculations. Dr Kaushal said: “Even if China does not feature directly in the talks, the US must invest in capabilities affecting the nuclear balance, including missile defence and conventional strike systems.

"This in turn causes Russia to view its arsenal as being jeopardised and incentivises it to field additional nuclear capabilities.”

The RUSI report warns that this tripolar nuclear dynamic places strain on arms control agreements, including New START and the now-defunct INF Treaty.

The Alaska meeting, while bilateral, will be closely watched by NATO allies and Ukraine’s partners for signs of US resolve.

As the summit approaches, the focus is on how Moscow will leverage the meeting to consolidate its position amid the Ukraine war and wider nuclear competition.

While the immediate threat of nuclear use is low, the combination of missile diplomacy, conventional military pressure, and strategic signalling underscores the high stakes of tomorrow’s encounter.