We now have an argument about whether Iran is really in pursuit of a bomb, with an apparent spat between President Trump and his Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. In March, she assessed that Iran had not yet decided to build a bomb. That may have been true. But it is also irrelevant. Iran has been enriching uranium to near weapons grade for years.
The International Atomic Energy Agency a few days ago said the Islamic Republic now has enough such material to manufacture around 10 bombs, with the final stages to achieve weapons grade possible within two weeks, according to US intelligence. Iran has some missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. We have seen their ballistic missiles penetrate Israeli air defences in the last few days. The final component is weaponisation, turning weapons grade uranium into a viable nuclear device.
The ability to identify that programme through intelligence has always been a major challenge given it can be achieved very discreetly. Recently Israel confirmed it had intelligence that Iran is now in fact making progress on weaponisation.
So with the components in place, all that would be needed is for [Supreme Leader of Iran] Ali Khamanei to give the order to put them together. It would be suicidal to wait until intelligence confirmed that order had been given. And anyway there could be no certainty such a decision would be identified by intelligence.
Given the enormous stakes Israel had no choice than to strike when it did. There are some risks you do not take. Perhaps the greatest is to allow acquisition of nuclear weapons by a fanatical religious tyranny with a track record of unrestrained violence that repeatedly declares its intention to annihilate you.
No Israelis that I have spoken to over here in the days since Israel launched its pre-emptive war doubt the need for it. Even opposition leaders, sworn political rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are four-square behind his actions, unheard of in this country.
Of course all Israelis recognise the current dangers to themselves, and almost all of them have been forced to take refuge in bomb shelters several times every day since last weekend. But they do understand they would face hugely greater dangers in just sitting back and watching Iran becoming a nuclear armed state.
Another concern is escalation into a region-wide conflict. That is highly unlikely. Most Arab countries, themselves in fear of Iran gaining nuclear weapons, are backing Israel in this fight, even though their public comments might tell a different story.
The Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian proxy, remain rampant, but are now almost completely isolated with Iran fighting for its own survival. In Iraq there is a different picture, with Tehran’s proxies there threatening to attack every US base in the country if America goes onto the offensive alongside Israel.
The US has clearly factored that into any decision on its future role in the war and has plans to act against them and their missiles if the time comes.
