Israel's surprise attack on Iran’s military and nuclear scientist elite came as a shock to the Islamic Republic. But friends of Israel were hardly less amazed. Airstrikes are continuing and it will be a while before the dust clears. Nonetheless, the impact of Israel’s bold and perfectly executed pinpoint strikes is visible.
Donald Trump has swung America wholly behind Israel having been pushing a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear programme with talks scheduled for next Sunday. Now the President tweets out dire threats to the Ayatollah’s regime. Britain and the EU are still calling for moderation but their voices are whistling in the wind.
Israel’s prime minister says regime change in Tehran is the only way to end the Iranian threat to his country. But such a change of government would be a death sentence for Ayatollah Khamenei. As the Iranian revolution in 1979 showed, losers don’t last long there so expect the regime to cling to power brutally. So unless an uprising topples the Islamic Republic, the regime will roll with Israeli punches hoping that time will wear out Israel’s ability to strike so deep into Iran.
For Vladimir Putin the impact of the Israeli-Iran conflict will be very mixed. The spike in oil prices as oil producers fear they could be hit in the crossfire between Tel Aviv and Teheran is good news for the Kremlin’s war-chest. World attention will be distracted from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, too. But Russia’s supply of Iranian-made drones which Putin has used to batter Ukrainian cities will dry up. The Israelis have hit Iran’s drone factories and the Ayatollah will want every drone Iran can produce to throw at Israel.
North Korea could step into this war as it has sent troops and weapons to back Russia in Ukraine. Its dictator, Kim Jong un, could even try to smuggle one of his nuclear warheads – via Russia – to Iran. Even without another pariah state getting directly involved on Iran’s side, the war has just started.
Unless the Iranian regime collapses out of the humiliation Israel has inflicted on it, Israel’s hammer blows will not have solved its problem with the Islamic Republic, though it has bought Israel a lot of valuable time. A wounded beast can be more dangerous. Iran’s agents abroad could turn to terrorism attacking Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
Only last month, Britain’s security service frustrated an Iranian plot to attack the Israeli embassy next to Kensington Palace. Other “sleepers” might be activated across the West now.
Of course, Iran’s agents abroad might be stunned by the Israeli strikes which revealed how vulnerable their paymasters in Tehran were. Who wants to go on a suicide mission for losers? We’ll find out soon enough, I fear. Aftershocks from the geopolitical earthquake triggered by Israel’s attack on Iran are going to be felt far and wide.
