Staring down a global recession

Ever since the U.S. unveiled sweeping tariffs hitting nearly every single one of its major trading partners, there’s been a flurry of predictions that a global recession could be imminent.

Economists say the outlook is pretty grim.

I spoke with Tu Nguyen, an economist with RSM Canada, who said if the U.S. doesn’t change its stance on tariffs soon, a global recession will be declared in six months.

"It's reasonable to say that we are entering one as we speak,” she said.

As tariffs drive up the price of goods, people will stop buying and investing, dampening demand and increasing layoffs — which we’re already starting to see in some sectors, according to Andrew DiCapua, principal economist with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

In a global recession, some countries fare better. For instance, Canada took less of a hit in the 2008 financial crisis than some regions. But in 2025, Canada’s economy is so tied to the U.S. economy that we’ll go down if they do, economists told us.

Only the U.S. backing down across the board would stop a global recession — which seems unlikely right now.