Reform UK faces perhaps its greatest opportunity but also its greatest risks as success looms at the May 1 elections. Nigel Farage's party looks set to win the Runcorn by-election alongside a host of council seats and a few mayoralties. But if Reform can transform opinion poll ratings into tangible success then scrutiny will surely increase over the party's policies and personnel. Voters and pundits alike will want to know more about the top team beyond Farage - with eyes out for further Rupert Lowe-style infighting - as well as concrete ideas on everything from education to defence.

Then of course risks could grow beyond the party's control. Right now, Reform benefits from Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the increasingly washed-up Conservatives. While I doubt Tory top brass would risk the optics of ousting Badenoch so soon after her election as party leader, what if it does? Robert Jenrick as party leader may or may not transform Tory fortunes but would he really do any worse?

What of a Boris Johnson return? Partygate and record migration aside, virtually no Tory but Johnson has the charisma and profile to match Farage, the former a proven vote winner both as London Mayor and Tory chief. Rumours grow of a comeback.

Meanwhile we already hear of Labour plans to water down climate policies and beef up the border. More of that kind of thing could sway some of the Red Wall, at least enough to pull Labour a few points clear of Reform.

Internationally one cannot rule out another Covid-style shock. Perhaps a major war. Such an event could push domestic policies to the background and encourage a rally-around-the-flag effect.

That kind of thing always gives incumbents an advantage, while Reform's foreign and defence policies are decidedly thin on the ground.

Reform UK is no doubt surging but the greater its electoral successes, the more scrutiny will grow, and the more Labour and the Tories could be catalysed to get their backsides into gear.

Global crises aside, 2029 – the date the next election is slated for given Labour's supermajority – is a long way off. Much could happen between now and then.

May 1 therefore could well confirm Reform's ability to remake British politics as a three-horse race. But it could also open the greatest risks yet for the insurgent party.