Is Tory desperation increasing as Reform UK storms the polls in the run-up to the May 1 elections? Reform is expected to win the Runcorn by-election and pick up wins from both the Conservatives and Labour in local council elections as well. Now Tees Valley Mayor Lord Houchen has warned the Tories may need to form a coalition with Reform at the next general election to keep Labour out of government.

Speaking with the BBC, the Tory mayor said if the number of Tory and Reform MPs "create a significant majority" then "obviously there's going to be a conversation to form a coalition or some sort of pact". This comes as Tory leader Kemi Badenoch – while rejecting talk of a formal coalition at a general election – refused to rule out informal deals with Reform at local level, while speaking with Sky at the weekend. A huge clue as to the mood in Tory HQ.

Farage seems wise to all this coalition talk, repeatedly ruling out any deal, including when a leaked recording emerged of former Tory leadership candidate Robert Jenrick talking of uniting the Right.

No doubt aware Reform would be tainted by association, Farage will be wise to the fact any deal could be a means for Tory HQ to constrain Reform and ensure the Conservatives would be the senior partner in any coalition.

Would Reform however reject a deal with the Tories if – as current polls indicate – the former would be the larger of the two parties after a general election, and a coalition with Farage as PM would keep Labour out of power?

Possibly. But given the election is slated for 2029, Reform would be wise to maintain its current position for now. After all, Reform's core appeal is authenticity. Why tarnish that by associating itself with the toxic Tories?

Farage can of course afford to wait but clearly Tory nerves are jangling. Two most recent national polls – this time by Opinium and Techne – have Labour and Reform tied, with the Conservatives in a distant third.

Having botched Brexit, betrayed voters on immigration and racked up record debt, why would voters trust the Tories? Meanwhile talk of a pact ignores the extent to which Reform appeals to Labour voters as well.

This explains Reform's recent reindustrialisation and nationalisation policies, as Thatcherism redux gives way to a more nuanced position blending conservative social policies with low taxation but also patriotic interventionism in the economy.

As Reform redefines UK politics, the Conservatives are rattled. The Red Wall is lost and, to boot, much of the country now rejects the failed Tory brand. That said, Farage's party needs to prove it is more than just a party of protest, as Runcorn and countless mayoral and council elections become Reform's to lose.