Labour is being tipped to plunge towards a catastrophic defeat in a key mayoral race after a disastrous poll predicted it could slump to third behind Nigel Farage’s Reform. The election for the new mayor of Cambridgeshire seemed to be a close fight between former Peterborough MP Paul Bristow, for the Tories, and Labour’s Anna Smith.

A Labour Together survey in March previously put Sir Keir Starmer’s party, which is defending the seat, on 27% compared with the Conservatives on 31%. But a YouGov poll conducted from April 9-23 now puts Labour on 19%, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surging into second place with 20%. Mr Bristow – whose campaign pledges include ditching Cambridge’s planned congestion charge and bringing free parking to Peterborough – now appears to be comfortably ahead on 32%, according to the poll.

The Cambridgeshire race could be a source of good news for Kemi Badenoch in a series of local elections where the Conservatives are predicted to lose hundreds of councillors.

Earlier this month, Mr Bristow told the Express there had been a backlash against Labour, saying of voters: “They want to see someone who’s going to say no to a congestion charge for Cambridge, because the solution of the Left is always to try to penalise people to get them out of their cars.

“I think there’s a reason their support is plummeting in every poll – it’s because I think people have seen a party that’s not ready for government in many ways and one that’s been a bit vindictive, going after those people who they don’t traditionally see as supporting them.”

Ryan Coogan, the Reform candidate, said voters were “desperate for change”, telling the Express: “People on the doorstep are absolutely in a state of panic about what the councils are pushing through.

“Politicians have eroded trust over time with just consistent messages where they’re reading a brief in the morning and then doing absolutely nothing about it.”

The poll takes place on Thursday, May 1, with voters across England electing four regional mayors.

Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is predicted to win for Reform in Greater Lincolnshire, while Luke Hall is also predicted to win for Reform in Hull and East Yorkshire.