The Conservatives could lose as many as 525 councillors in next week’s local elections with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK scoring major successes, according to one of Britain’s most respected polling experts. Lord Robert Hayward has a chilling message for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, saying between 475 and 525 councillors could be ousted.

He expects Reform could win 400 to 450 council seats, doing particularly well in the Midlands and the North. Labour is expected to hold steady, losing some seats to Reform and others but taking others from the Conservatives.

The Liberal Democrats could make 70 to 80 gains, taking seats from the Tories in areas Sir Ed Davey’s party won in the summer election. The Greens are tipped to make gains in areas such as Cambridge and Oxford – winning 20 to 40 new seats overall – where Labour has come under pressure for reductions in foreign aid and welfare savings.

Major Tory losses to Reform are likely to fuel calls for the two parties to agree not to stand against one another at the next Westminster election.

However, Mr Farage has said his supporters would be “revolted” at the suggestion of a pact.

He said: “We had 14 years of the Conservative Party. Tax is the highest since 1947, the state growing, the civil service growing, mass immigration at levels even Tony Blair couldn’t dream of.

“They let people down by every single measure.”

However, there are concerns Labour could win another parliamentary term in power if there is no agreement.

Former Business Secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg recently told the Express: “I hope both sides have realised that arguing amongst ourselves and letting Labour have a big majority isn’t clever, isn’t a good way to work, isn’t in the interests of the country.”

Labour and the Liberal Democrats have claimed Tories are plotting a “grubby deal”.

Mrs Badenoch’s spokesman this week said she “agrees that we need to bring centre-right voters together to defeat Labour”.