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Donald Trump's trade wars have seen confidence in the UK economy plunge to a record low. Consumer expectations for the British economy fell in April from -35 to -48, as per the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC) figures.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, said: "With fieldwork completed just days after Donald Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariffs, it is unsurprising that consumer expectations for the economy plummeted to a record low.

"The original tariff schedule, since reduced for most countries, was expected to reduce growth in the UK and elsewhere. Even with a pause on many of the US tariffs, business and consumer confidence remains fragile."

Under the Trump administration's tariffs, British businesses are subject to a baseline 10% charge on goods entering the US. A 25% levy also applies to cars, car parts, aluminium and steel.

On top of Mr Trump's tariffs, the BRC identified the Government's increases in employer National Insurance contributions and the lowering of the threshold at which they are paid as adding to the pressures.

Ms Dickinson said the risk of higher prices was an unwanted addition to the £7billion in new costs hitting retailers this year, including the increases to employer National Insurance, the national living wage and a new packaging tax.

According to BRC-Opinium data, consumers believe their financial situation worsened to -16 in April, down from -10 in March.

Their personal financial situation worsened to -16 in April, down from -10 in March. Spending on retail rose to +3 in April, up from 0 in March while personal spending overall fell slightly to +10 in April, down from +11 in March.

Personal saving rose slightly to -4 in April, up from -5 in March, according to the BRC-Opinium data.

Ms Dickinson said many retailers were also concerned about the risk of cheap Chinese goods being diverted from the US to other countries, including the UK.

She said Britain should review the de minimis rules, which allow low-value imports to avoid checks and duties. BRC's Chief Exec added: "It is vital the UK’s strict quality standards are upheld to ensure the best outcome for British businesses and consumers."

Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Wednesday (April 23) announced plans to strengthen Britain's defences against cheap imports undercutting UK businesses.

Ms Reeves said she would review the rules on "low value imports" due to the concerns they unfairly benefit foreign companies such as Temu and Shein at the expense of UK high street shops.

The Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) will also channel resources towards helping businesses report unfair practices such as "dumping", in which goods are sold into the UK at below-market prices.

Ms Reeves said: "Today's package will help businesses compete fairly with international exporters, supporting a world economy that provides stability and fairness for working people and businesses alike."

Currently, imports valued under £135 do not have to pay customs duties, but some retailers have argued this gives preferential treatment to firms such as Temu and Shein, which make and store products overseas before shipping them directly to UK customers.

The Chancellor insisted yesterday that there was "a deal to be done" with the US and the Trump administration was "keen", despite suggestions from senior American officials that the 10% tariff was a "baseline" Mr Trump was unlikely to reduce.

But Ms Reeves appeared to rule out at least some changes to non-tariff barriers which the US is thought to be seeking. One sticking point is likely to be agricultural imports, with some US exports falling below UK food standards.

Ms Reeves insisted the Government would not dilute British standards as part of a US-UK trade deal, telling the BBC the US administration "respect and understand that".

She also appeared to rule out changes to the Online Safety Act, which some US politicians regard as restricting free speech. She told Sky News: "We've just passed the Online Safety Act and the safety, particularly of our children, is non-negotiable for the British Government."

Asked about changes to road safety laws which would allow American SUVs to be sold in the UK, she said the Government was "not going to water down areas of road safety".

But she was less adamant over whether the UK would consider reducing tariffs on American vehicles from 10% to 2.5%, something the Trump administration is reported to be seeking as part of any deal.

The UK economy is predicted to grow by 1.1% this year, 0.5 percentage points less than January's forecast, partly reflecting tariffs, as well as weaker consumption amid higher inflation driven by bills and energy price hikes.

Growth will nonetheless be stronger in the UK than in Germany, France, and Italy, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest forecast.


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