British politics may never be the same after May 1, when a slew of elections will be held, including local council and mayoral polls, as well as the all-important Runcorn by-election. The Runcorn vote is Reform UK's to lose. Neck and neck with Labour nationally, if Nigel Farage's party underperforms here, and in mayoral and council elections more broadly, the hype around Reform could give way to one heck of an anti-climax.

Should that occur, Labour's purported shift to the Right may start to reverse, while under-siege Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, may get at least a temporary reprieve alongside a reversal in Conservative Party fortunes. If however May 1 confirms Reform's rise then Labour's alleged shift to the Right may continue apace. Ironically, this could further aid Reform if it ultimately splits the Left-wing vote as some Labour backers start peeling off to the Greens and Lib Dems.

Victory for Reform in the Lincolnshire mayoral contest - and Hull as well - both big Leave-voting areas, would signal a seismic shift in Britain's political landscape.

Coupled with recent data on the Red Wall - where pollsters Survation found massive growth in support for Reform at Labour's expense - and we might be looking at a concentration of support for the insurgent party teeing it up well for the next general election, slated for 2029.

What of the Tories? If the losses are predictably bad - and if the party loses its deposit in the Runcorn by-election - expect the knives to be out for Badenoch as the Conservatives' support base craters.

This may not be in Farage's best interest however. Badenoch's poor showing is a tremendous asset for Reform and her removal might (might!) see the Conservatives turn the tide.

Personally however, I think the optics of defenestrating Badenoch - especially this soon after her election as Tory leader - would be catastrophic. So, regardless of what happens on May 1, my sense is Badenoch stays in place, while Reform continues to enjoy its remarkable rise.

Make no mistake though, the contours of British politics are changing, and May 1 will likely confirm this. The Tories are tacking to the centre while Labour shifts a little to the Right (at least in theory) to counter Reform.

Meanwhile Farage's party has found a niche marrying Right-wing positions on immigration, the environment, crime and taxation, with a little patriotic interventionism on the economy.

As seen with the British Steel drama - where Reform clearly catalysed Labour's policy - this directly appeals to a Red Wall which is fast becoming fertile ground for Reform.

May 1 could be the moment which reshapes UK politics and - notwithstanding a world war three type shock - defines the political landscape for the next half decade.