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Was the walk back on tariffs by US President Donald Trump a shrewd negotiating strategy - with tariffs paused on countries which the President said had not retaliated to his levies - or his 'Truss moment'?Former British PM Liz Truss became the victim of the so-called 'bond vigilantes' after her 2022 tax-cutting mini-budget spooked financial markets. A similar rocking of the markets may have catalysed this backtracking by Trump.

The pause comes as the President ramps up tariffs on China, having been a longstanding critic of the trade deficit America has with its major geostrategic rival. Of course, the US - though not Trump - is largely responsible for this, having spent years offshoring and outsourcing its industry to the Asian giant. Meanwhile, China - having climbed the manufacturing value chain - could easily shift some of its industry to other countries.

Trump will likely present this as a negotiating tactic all along - a point made by his friend, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage - but for many there will be a definite hit to his authority from this purported climbdown.

Not all tariffs will be reduced or paused however, including the blanket 25% on car parts, or those earlier imposed on Canada and Mexico.

Allies in the EU and Japan will now only be subject to the minimum 10% tariff imposed on the UK, perhaps leading Remainers to criticise whether there was any 'Brexit dividend' at all.

While markets have rallied, uncertainty remains, while the China-US relationship is bad and getting worse. With China, given the ever-present threat of war over Taiwan, the less China has to lose economically the more likely it will be to make a move on the island democracy.

Might the tariffs inadvertently speed up an invasion or blockade of Taiwan? Who knows. But the fact tariffs have been imposed in the first place is likely to not only worsen ties with Beijing but raise suspicions among US allies that this administration is not a reliable partner.

For the UK, there will be some relief, especially given the limited headroom Chancellor Rachel Reeves left herself. While Reeves is not responsible for the tariffs, she could have allowed for unforeseen events like them.

True, the 10% tariff on UK products remains - alongside the globally-applied 25% tariff on auto parts and cars - but the climbdown suggests even this lower tariff might be negotiable, especially since the UK runs a deficit with the US, and Trump sees the UK as a relatively low-level offender.

Negotiating genius or victim of the bond vigilantes? Only time will tell. But for now the markets take some comfort from the pause, while it braces for ongoing tensions between the world's first and second largest economies.


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